OPTIMUS FPG · Fintech track · EDA hisoboti

Qaysi alert tekshiruvga yuboriladi? yondashuv, maqola retsepti, bitta javob: mijozning o'z tranzaksiya turlari orasidagi nisbat.

ROC-AUC train · test → feature tajriba · maqola
0
train tranzaksiyalar
0
alertlar (train)
0
eskalatsiya darajasi
0
CV ROC-AUC · -fold
PASTGA
01

Masala

kunlik tranzaksiya tarixi → eskalatsiya ehtimoli. Metrika ROC-AUC.

KIRISH

~ tranzaksiya / alert

vaqt · kirim/chiqim · tur · hajm indeksi

CHIQISH

Ehtimol, 0…1

xavfli alertlar ro'yxat boshida

QIYINLIK

Sinflar deyarli bir xil

eng kuchli bitta feature: AUC

02

Dataset

train_signals
alert · → · target eskalatsiya
train_transactions
qator · tur × yo'nalish
test
alert · tranzaksiya · target yo'q
miqdor_indeksi
… , standartlashtirilgan
oyna
signaldan oldingi kun
O'rtacha tranzaksiya / alert ( … ). Soni: AUC .
Har tur uchun : tur aralashmasi ajratmaydi.
03

Target: , vaqt bo'yicha tekis

Oylik : shovqin. Sana ma'lumot bermaydi.

Signal bo'yicha o'rtachaRad etilganEskalatsiyaFarq
04

gipoteza, tasdiq

Klassik AML belgilari tekshirildi. Pastga siljing.

04

4 grafik

1 / 4

Hajm taqsimoti

Zichliklar ustma-ust. Farq shaklda: gistogramma featurelari AUC.

2 / 4

Tur × sinf

Farq faqat bank o'tkazmalarida: .

3 / 4

Signaldan oldingi faollik

/ kun. Ikkala sinfda bir xil: AUC .

4 / 4

Hafta kuni × soat

Har katakda 1.0 ± . Tungi faollik: signal yo'q.

05

Asosiy topilma

10 teng guruh, har birining haqiqiy eskalatsiya darajasi.

1 / 5

Bank − naqd, o'rtacha hajm

2 / 5

Bank chiqim − karta chiqim, q75

3 / 5

Minimal hajm

Chegarada , sal yuqorida . Nomonoton.

4 / 5

Tranzaksiyalar soni

5 / 5

Tungi ulush

nisbiy feature. Top-10 ning tasi shu oiladan.

06

Ikki artefakt

Burst: qatorlarning i oxirgi daqiqada, alertga ~ ta. Signaldan keyingi tranzaksiyalar siqilgan. Featurelar ularsiz.
Chegaralar: har tur × yo'nalish alohida standartlashtirilgan. Chegarada () , sal yuqorida .
07

EDA → featurelar

OILA 1
Vaqt oynalari
1 / 7 / 30 / 90 kun va butun tarix; count, mean, std, min, max, kvantillar; burst alohida
OILA 2
Taqsimot shakli
bin ulushlari, kvantillar, tur va yo'nalish bo'yicha
OILA 3
Nisbiy farqlar
tur / yo'nalish statistikalarining juft farqlari
TANLASH
→
LightGBM gain; CV →
Top-20: bank − naqd/karta farqlari va all_amt_min.
08

Adabiyot: retseptlar sinovda

Har retsept shu datasetda, bir xil -fold CV. Iqtiboslar asl nusxada.

JULLUM · LØLAND · HUSEBY · ÅNONSEN · LORENTZEN — J. Money Laundering Control 23(1), 2020 · DNB, Norvegiya
To fit the model, we use the machine learning library XGBoost. … the maximum and total amount, and the number of transactions of each of almost 30 different transaction types.
DNB real datasi, XGBoost, tur bo'yicha max / total / count.
Biz: shu retsept + XGBoost → XGBoost bizning top- da →
EDDIN · BONO · APARÍCIO · POLIDO · ASCENSÃO · BIZARRO · RIBEIRO (Feedzai) — arXiv:2112.07508, 2021
The top-performing model was a LightGBM … The aggregation functions include sum, mean, minimum, maximum, and count. We also compare aggregations over two time windows using ratios and differences.
LightGBM, oyna agregatlari, ikki oyna nisbat/farqlari; metrika recall@20%FPR.
Biz: ularning retsepti + LightGBM → Bizning model, recall@20%FPR →
BAKRY · ALSHARKAWY · FARAG · RASLAN — The Journal of Supercomputing, 2023 · ASXAML
…leverages recursive feature elimination with cross-validation for optimal feature selection. Subsequently, Optuna is employed to fine-tune hyperparameters for the XGBoost model.
XGBoost + RFE + Optuna.
Biz: RFE + Optuna + XGBoost → Naive Bayes (ularning bazasi) →
OZTAS · CETINKAYA · ADEDOYIN · BUDKA · AKSU · DOGAN — Future Generation Computer Systems, 2024
…innovative methods such as graph analysis and anomaly detection were suggested to overcome the limitations of rule-based systems.
Tavsiya: anomaliya aniqlash.
Biz: Isolation Forest / autoencoder / PCA → Skorlar feature sifatida →
XULOSA
DNB va Feedzai retseptlari bizda pastroq: ularda nisbiy tur farqlari yo'q. Anomaliya ≠ eskalatsiya.
09

tajriba, bitta reyting

Bir xil -fold CV. Manba: outputs/experiments.csv, outputs/experiments_papers.csv.

Shkala 0.40 → 0.70. Top-6 bir-biridan ichida.
CHIZIQLI vs BOOSTING
murakkab o'zaro ta'sir yo'q
MODEL TANLOVI
featurelar:
GRU VALID AUC
train loss
SHIFT
label shovqini
10

Yakuniy model

1
Featurelar
oila, nomzod, burst'siz
2
Tanlash
-fold LightGBM gain → top-
3A
LightGBM
3B
Logistik regressiya
C · median-imputer · standartlashtirish
4
Rank-blend
recall@20%FPR = : 20 % alert tekshirilib, eskalatsiyalarning i topiladi.
Skor desillari: , monoton.
11

Loglar va notebook

Loglar fayldan so'zma-so'z: outputs/train_log.txt, outputs/exp_papers.log, outputs/gru_training.log.

outputs/train_log.txt
outputs/exp_papers.log
outputs/gru_training.log

notebooks/01_eda.ipynb grafiklari

bank minus naqd desillari
site/img/07_relative.png
minimal hajm bo'yicha eskalatsiya
site/img/08_floor.png
feature importance
site/img/09_importance.png
ROC va kalibratsiya
site/img/10_roc_calibration.png